At this point in the admissions cycle, most schools have a clear picture of their expected intake for September 2026. From conversations with Headteachers and School Business Managers, a consistent pattern is emerging: in many areas, first-choice applications are now falling below PAN.
Having recently been through the process myself with our little boy, one moment really stood out. During a visit to an outstanding, historically oversubscribed primary school, the headteacher said, very candidly:
“If you put us as first choice, you will get a place.”
We took that chance, something we would have been far more hesitant to do ten years ago with our two older children…and he has been offered a place.
A few years ago, this scenario would have been almost unthinkable! For schools in that position and for parents who often made decisions not based on their true first choice, but on where they believed they had the best chance of securing a place. Oversubscription shaped behaviour. Today, the landscape is shifting, fewer pupils, more choice, and a growing need for schools to actively influence how they are perceived.
What the Parent Voice Project tells us
One of key findings from the Parent Voice Project is that parents don’t begin their search with Ofsted reports or performance tables. They start with what works for their day-to-day life.
55% stated location
44% stated reputation
25% Ofsted and school performance
23% School performance
Qualitative data from the findings also shows that ‘parents largely value the school’s reputation in the local area and fit over formal data’. Which raises an important question for schools: Is your communication to parents led with data or are you communicating what parents actually care about first?
You can’t physically move your school but you can tell your story. Reputation isn’t separate from marketing. It’s shaped by:
- The consistency of your communication
- The experience parents have when they visit
- The stories that are shared (or not shared) about your school
In other words, marketing isn’t about creating a narrative it’s about making sure you are talking about all the wonderful learning and opportunities you are giving to children and how you stand out from a neighbouring school.
“Will my child be happy here?” is still the deciding question. There is one thread running through all the findings. Parents are ultimately asking whether their child will be happy, safe, and able to thrive.
That includes:
- Behaviour in classrooms
- Relationships with staff
- Support for individual needs
- The overall feel of the school
It’s not that academic outcomes don’t matter, of course they do, but they’re part of a bigger picture. Often, that picture is formed in the small moments, a school visit, a conversation with a teacher, a photo of a smiling child, a comment from another parent. Those moments are so powerful and they’re easy to overlook.
What this means for schools below PAN
If your first preferences are below PAN, it’s natural to look at external factor’s demographics, local competition, cohort size, but the research suggests something worth reflecting on. Parents are making decisions based on perception, experience, and fit long before they submit an application and these things don’t happen by chance. They are shaped by:
- What parents see when they first come across your school
- How clearly you communicate what makes your school first choice
- Whether your strengths are communicated beyond the playground
This is where marketing plays a role.
As pupil numbers decline in many areas, schools are beginning to experience a more competitive landscape, particularly around visibility, perception, and parent confidence. This is a new and evolving challenge for schools. While they are fully aware of projected declines in pupil numbers over the next five years and have considered the potential impact, there is a clear need for marketing support and guidance. In particular, schools must focus on building trust, strengthening their reputation, and increasing awareness among prospective parents and the wider community.
The schools that are filling their PAN aren’t always those with the strongest data on paper. More often, they are the ones where parents feel confident in what they’ve seen and heard, the schools they trust to provide a safe, nurturing environment for their children to thrive, the schools whose messages are consistent throughout the year (and not just at key application times).
The Parent Voice Project reflects a clear and important insight, parents make decisions based on a wide range of factors, considering not only academic outcomes but also the wider experience and wellbeing of their child.
As we look ahead to September 2026 intake, the question isn’t just:
“Why aren’t we full?” it’s “What do parents actually see, hear and feel about our school and how well are we communicating that?”
Because increasingly, that’s what determines whether a parent chooses you or looks elsewhere.
Want to know more? Contact our Marketing Team for further information and advice.
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